Graham Allison and Morton Halperin in their
writing ‘Bureaucratic Politics’ have created a new paradigm which would
analyse, forecast and plan foreign policy. They first described the ‘Model 1’,
state its problems and then come up with a new methodology called ‘Bureaucratic
Politics Model’ to provide an alternate International policy framework which in
their opinion eliminates the problems with the original method.
This framework considers the connection
between several actors, attempts to come up with diverse and complex problems
that can be explained by the model. Interrelation between states has been taken
into consideration.
The question is can foreign policy be over simplified
and ultimately boiled down to the players involved, the role undertaken by each
player, and how these players together take decisions and perform actions on
behalf of the government?
Even the authors themselves point out
limitations of this framework. It lacks the scientific basis as and so does not
account for data analysis techniques. It does not account for the variations in
real life scenarios. Furthermore, while explaining government behaviour certain
assumptions are made, which renders the framework inflexible.
We can try applying the given framework to
this example. In the war between Russia and Ukraine some people are of the
opinion that the United States of support Ukraine in the war. However, this
will create problems for both, Ukraine and the United States. If Ukraine choses
to ally with either Russia or USA, it will make the other into an enemy. The ongoing
crisis is an opportunity for Ukraine to jot down its foreign policy. It may be
in Ukraine’s national interest to choose the path of non-alignment and act as a
buffer state between Russia and Europe.
Just because it lacks a "scientific" basis, isn't its observations valuable? Isn't their use of observations enough to qualify from a data analysis framework?
ReplyDeleteIn terms of Ukraine, it has historically been a buffer state, but now Russia is helping rebels violate its sovereignty. And, of course, remember Russia annexed Crimea last year, which is a blatant violation of Ukraine's sovereignty.
Government has to make alliances considering the political or social situation which prevail in the country, like Pakistan has to incline towards America to eradicate the menace of terrorism and Mahnoor, regarding your arguments about Ukraine crisis, you seemed to mix up the facts. Russia is actively involved in arming the rebels against Ukrainian government and Ukraine obviously have to look towards America as only with her help, it can counter Russia's effect.
ReplyDeleteYour statement, "The ongoing crisis is an opportunity for Ukraine to jot down its foreign policy" begs an interesting question of whether varying events and situations lead a country to formulate its foreign policy or are these events the result of some pre-decided foreign policy itself.
ReplyDeleteIn any case, bureaucratic politics model can be a good way in understanding the response of Ukraine to this crisis.