In the; “Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First
World War’, Stepehen Van Evera discusses the race for arms and the ‘strike
first’ tactics that caused the third deadliest war in history. The author views the First World War as a a
product of a more aggressive foreign policy emphasizing absolute military power
coupled with a constant lookout for the best opportunity to strike first.
Germany’s motivations behind the war were not solely
security concerns but rather had a healthy dose of ambition added to the mix.
However this serves to fortify the authors theory rather than serving as an impediment,
for Germany’s expansionist military policies contributed to the sense of unease
and ensuing arms race leading up to the War. Everas analysis can find
substantial backing in cases other than the First World War, a notable example
of which occurred in the Second World War when the Japanese attacked Pearl
Harbour.
Perhaps with the advent of the nuclear age, the ‘Cult of
Offensive’ theory exists in a paradox, where on one side states recognize the
unprecedented scale of destruction that nuclear warfare could entail both
domestically and globally while on the other, the strike first mentality
remains an option despite its ensuing consequences. A state that strikes first with a nuclear
weapon against another nuclear power risks retaliation by the state targeted
and it’s allies. However if a state manages to effectively destroy an enemy
state in a nuclear attack, there is a possibility that other states, including
prior allies might choose to avoid involvement in a conflict that could be a
potential Armageddon.
Decent post that raises a good question: have nuclear weapons effectively killed the "cult of the offensive"? Perhaps, but then again maybe not.
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